As tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate following President Donald Trump's announcement of "Project Freedom," new efforts to restore commercial shipping are looking increasingly elusive.
Shipping giant Maersk said one of its ships successfully passed through the strait on May 4 under US military protection, although risks remain.
Amid questions about how the U.S. Navy will secure maritime traffic from ongoing threats and whether the current approach can prevent a wider conflict, Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL) spoke with retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett.
A former director of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and senior intelligence official at the U.S. Joint Forces Command, Murrett is now a professor at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University and deputy director of the Institute for Security Policy and Law.
Radio Free Europe: Admiral, let’s start with the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz. US forces have reportedly destroyed Iranian ships and missiles flying towards the UAE, while we have a ceasefire hanging by a thread. From your perspective as a former head of the NGA and other senior intelligence roles, have we already passed the point of a “fragile peace” and are we effectively back in conflict?
Robert Murrett: Very good question. I would say that this represents a very significant increase in the level of conflict there. The movements that have occurred in the last 24 hours alone are very worrying, because they warn of an expansion of the conflict. Of course, for example, the United Arab Emirates and the two ships that were attacked near them on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz are part of this concern. But also the interaction that has occurred in the Gulf itself and some of the attacks in both directions – including our own US Navy sinking… small Iranian boats – puts us in a very threatening position.
Radio Free Europe: President Donald Trump is introducing “Project Freedom,” but without a full naval escort. You’ve said the first few days are critical. Is this plan a stabilizing move?
Robert Murrett: I would say that anything we can do to open up and guarantee free transit and freedom of navigation – as we see it in the Navy – through the Strait of Hormuz is worth exploring. The idea of doing this without any agreement from the Iranian side is quite challenging, given the maritime geography, how narrow the strait is, but also the options that Iran has for significant attacks, particularly with smaller ships, unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vehicles and even, potentially, unmanned underwater platforms.
So, from a tactical and naval perspective, it's difficult. But anything we can do to open up free navigation as quickly as possible is definitely worth doing.
Radio Free Europe: Let's elaborate on this. What does a real US Navy escort operation in the face of fire look like? How would it differ from what is being attempted now?
Robert Murrett: There are different ways to do this, and based on what happened today, there was clearly an emphasis on air assets rather than escorts in close proximity. For example, the White House announcement talked about running ships through an additional security zone closer to the southern entrances near Oman. But the point I would make is that you don't have to be in close proximity to the ships being escorted to provide security.
The attacks that we saw today involved helicopters, and I'm sure there are other aircraft providing cover. If you look at some of the Pentagon's operational maps, many of the ships involved are actually outside the strait, so some in the Gulf of Oman and even in the northern Arabian Sea. So it's a complicated tactical situation, but the bottom line is that security can be provided from a distance, especially with strong air cover, which is a key component.
Radio Free Europe: US Central Command, under Admiral Brad Cooper, says US forces are reacting defensively: “shoot if fired upon.” In such a crowded corridor, is that sustainable?
Robert Murrett: It depends on how you define defense. I think Admiral Cooper is doing a great job, and I have a lot of confidence in the work that the U.S. Fifth Fleet is doing. However, it is a big challenge. There are different types of defensive operations, including what we call “active defense.” That falls into a gray area. You face threatening targets, on the surface, in the air, or potentially underwater, and you may be forced to engage from a defensive perspective even if they are not an immediate and direct threat.
Another key point is the challenge of protecting merchant ships. They are mostly slow-moving, and securing the trust of captains and, importantly, insurance companies is something we have not yet achieved. Most insurance companies are still not willing to provide coverage for passage through the strait, and this is a major obstacle.
Radio Free Europe: You highlighted the unknowns. Which worries you more tonight: miscalculation, escalation, or economic paralysis?
Robert Murrett: The biggest concern would be a full-scale escalation, something that uses this moment as a starting point and completely overturns the ceasefire that is currently in place. This could expand the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz and significantly increase its intensity.
The second concern is whether we can provide sufficient security to allow the large number of ships currently stranded in the Persian Gulf to pass safely. This requires confidence not only from ship captains but also from corporate executives and insurance companies.
The best way to achieve this would be some kind of agreement with Iran. As long as Iran can endanger the ships, it will remain a very difficult challenge.
Radio Free Europe: Iran seems to believe it has the upper hand by threatening access through the Strait. Is this real leverage?
Robert Murrett: I would say it is real. That is not to say it cannot be mitigated, but Iran has considerable leverage because of geography and capabilities. At the same time, it is very much in Iran’s interest to keep the strait open, given how much its economy depends on exports passing through it. Our military posture is important in creating leverage for a diplomatic solution that would allow for free and open navigation.
Radio Free Europe: You mentioned this, but let's connect it to strategy: if Iran is signaling strength through deterrence, does a limited US presence – guidance without full escort – risk reinforcing Tehran's narrative?
Robert Murrett: I wouldn't say it reinforces it, but it reflects a realistic assessment of what Iran can do, given its coastal positioning and the range of options. It's a pragmatic approach that takes into account the operational environment.
Radio Free Europe: You have served at the highest levels of naval intelligence. How quickly can a situation like this escalate from ship harassment to a full-scale naval confrontation?
Robert Murrett: It could escalate very quickly, but it could also move in the other direction. There is no doubt that Iran has the option to expand the conflict, and we have already seen some disturbing actions in the UAE over the last 24 hours. If they choose to expand this to other regional partners, it would be extremely serious. They could escalate very quickly, but at this point, I see no clear evidence that they intend to do so, despite the disturbing signals.
Radio Free Europe: Meanwhile, European allies are hesitating. President Macron says France will not participate. Is this hesitation a sign that allies see strategic risks? Is there something that American intelligence can see that they perhaps don't?
Robert Murrett: I wouldn't say that. Our European allies, including France and the United Kingdom, understand the situation well. Their assessments are consistent with ours and there is a great deal of intelligence sharing. Countries in Asia, such as Japan and South Korea, are also very interested in restoring free navigation through the strait. There is a broad consensus on the risks and challenges.
Radio Free Europe: Let's talk about capabilities. European fleets have specialized mine-clearing assets that the US currently does not have. Without them, can the strait really be secured?
Robert Murrett: The best way to secure the strait is through a diplomatic agreement. If Iran chooses to deploy mines, unmanned systems, or small-ship group tactics, these are very real threats. But we share with our allies an understanding of this risk and a clear assessment of the challenge.
Radio Free Europe: If a US warship or an escorted tanker is hit, what happens next?
Robert Murrett: This would present a very difficult decision for the White House. It is less likely that a US warship would be hit because of its defensive capabilities, but a merchant ship is more vulnerable. If that happens, there would have to be some form of response. What that response would look like would depend on the circumstances, but it would be limited and proportionate.
Radio Free Europe: And, finally, what would be "success" in the coming days?
Robert Murrett: Success would be a diplomatic solution in which Iran agrees to free and open navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, refrains from further attacks on regional partners, and reduces destabilizing activities. This would also include steps toward limiting its nuclear program, similar to previous agreements, with inspections and transparency.
This outcome would serve not only the United States and its allies, but also the Iranian people. /REL
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