The FIFA Club World Cup has been running for 25 years, but the tournament has never been bigger than the upcoming 2025 edition.
An expanded version of the competition, which was first held in 2000 and has gradually grown in size and importance since then, will feature 32 teams from six confederations in a footballing feast to be held in the United States, just a few weeks after the end of the regular club season.
Kicking off on June 14 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami and concluding with the final on July 13 in New Jersey, some of the biggest teams in the world will face off, with some of them already accelerating transfers and staff changes to prepare.
Opta's supercomputer predicts that European teams - including UEFA Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain and five-time champions Real Madrid - will be the ones to beat, but there are also other global powerhouses aiming for glory, such as Brazilian side Palmeiras, Saudi league stars Al-Hilal, and Argentine giants Boca Juniors and River Plate.
Three MLS teams will also compete on home soil: Inter Miami as the tournament's "host team," Seattle Sounders - previous CONCACAF Champions League winners - as well as Los Angeles FC, who qualified just two weeks before the tournament by defeating Club América in a play-off match, following the elimination of Mexican side Club León.
The supercomputer has simulated the 2025 Club World Cup a full 10,000 times and Opta's prediction model has collected the data and prepared the percentages ahead of the tournament. Without further ado, let's take a look at the prediction numbers.
Paris Saint-Germain (18.5%) are ranked as the favourites to win the Club World Cup after their stunning Champions League triumph last month.
Our prediction model sees PSG as the most likely to win on their debut in this tournament, although the French are only slightly ahead of Premier League champions Manchester City (17.8%).
These two teams are part of a "Big Six" group, which also includes Bayern Munich (12.8%), UCL runners-up Inter (12.3%), five-time champions Real Madrid (9.8%) and 2021 winners Chelsea (8.4%).
Other teams that have real hopes of going far are Borussia Dortmund, Atlético Madrid, Juventus and Benfica.
European clubs are expected to dominate the tournament, but star-studded Al-Hilal and Inter Miami - who play at home with Lionel Messi in the squad - are among the teams that could surprise the UEFA teams.
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG come into their tournament debut with plenty of momentum, having thrashed Inter 5-0 in a record-breaking Champions League final, capping off a memorable campaign that included eliminations of Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal.
After their European success, PSG have a real chance to add another world title to their list of trophies.
However, Atlético Madrid's presence in Group B makes it difficult to top the group. They will face each other on June 15 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.
Group B also includes Botafogo and Seattle Sounders, stronger teams than some of the other possible ones, so a competitive first phase is expected for all four teams, although the two European giants are favorites to advance.
PSG reached the last 1 in 16% of our simulations and are the team everyone wants to avoid in the knockout stage.
They have a 75.4% chance of reaching the quarterfinals, 49.2% for the semifinals, 30.9% for the final and 18.5% to win the title.
Manchester City
Before the start of the tournament, City is seen as PSG's main challenger.
Despite their lack of trophies this season, City are the defending champions in this tournament and have one of the strongest squads.
They won the last tournament in 2023 with a 4-0 win over Fluminense, and Guardiola has an excellent record in this competition (four-time winner).
City have a 97.2% chance of progressing to the last 1, more than any other team, and a 16% chance of reaching the final.
Bayern Munich
Apart from Real Madrid, only Bayern has won this tournament more than once.
After reclaiming the Bundesliga title, Vincent Kompany will be hoping Harry Kane can lead the team to another trophy.
They start the tournament against Auckland City (ranked 4,960 in the Opta global rankings), an easy start on paper.
However, a tough fight is expected in Group C with Benfica and Boca Juniors.
Bayern has a 93.3% chance of advancing from the group and a 12.8% chance of winning the tournament.
Inter Milan
Inter suffered a difficult end to the season after losing to PSG and losing the Italian title to Napoli.
Coach Simone Inzaghi has moved to Al-Hilal, leaving behind less than ideal preparations for Inter.
However, Inter has a 79% chance of winning Group E and a 12.3% chance of winning the trophy.
Real Madrid
With a 9.8% chance of winning, Madrid comes into the tournament after a less than impressive season.
But with new coach Xabi Alonso, the arrival of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mbappé in top form, they should not be underestimated.
They are favorites to win Group H (76.4%).
Chelsea
Chelsea finished the season in fourth place in the Premier League and won this tournament in 2021.
They are expected to easily advance through Group D with a 93.4% chance and have an 8.5% chance of winning the tournament.
Other teams with chances:
– Borussia Dortmund (5.4%)
– Atletico Madrid (5.1%)
– Juventus (3.6%)
– Benfica (3.3%)
– Porto (0.6%)
These are the only 11 teams with more than a 0.5% chance of winning the tournament according to Opta.
Challengers from the rest of the world:
– Al-Hilal (50.5% chance of advancing)
– Inter Miami (with Lionel Messi in top form)
– River Plate (19.7% chance of quarterfinals)
– Palmeiras
– Flamengo (51.8% to advance from the group)
Weakest teams according to simulations:
– Auckland City and Al Ain never won the tournament in any of the 10,000 simulations.
– Urawa Red Diamonds, Ulsan HD, ES Tunis, Wydad AC, and Pachuca are also at the bottom of the standings.
If you're looking for a surprise at the bottom of the list, you can keep an eye on:
– Al Ahly
– LAFC
– Mamelodi Sundowns
– Fluminense
– Monterrey
These teams have more than a 33% chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
edition
t7 live
