Russia is using a multi-pronged strategy to spread an illiberal model of governance in the Western Balkans, leveraging extremist movements, Orthodox religious networks, and sympathetic political elites.
Moscow's goal is to influence elections, legislation, and public discourse, making the region more vulnerable to pro-Russian narratives and hindering democratic consolidation.
According to experts, transnational far-right networks linked to Moscow provide ideological, organizational, and moral support to regional actors, normalizing authoritarian practices and creating resistance to European Union standards in countries with weak institutions and political fragmentation. By combining Orthodox religion and ultranationalism with influence operations, Russia has transformed its soft power into a tangible and enduring force, shaping political trajectories and making democratic consolidation difficult across the region.
In January 2026, analysts reported a surge in far-right propaganda linked to Russia on the Telegram platform in Serbia. Dozens of interconnected channels amplify the messages of the International League of Sovereignty and other extremist networks, reaching hundreds of thousands of followers. These channels are not isolated echo chambers; ultranationalist groups in Serbia repost coordinated content on immigration, traditionalism, and opposition to liberal norms, integrating pro-Moscow narratives into online discourse. Experts note that digital platforms have become central vectors for foreign influence, shaping public opinion and political dynamics rather than simply reflecting them.
Online networks are just one layer of a broader ecosystem of Russian influence. In the Western Balkans, extremist militias march in the streets, Orthodox priests portray loyalty to Moscow as a moral duty, and sympathetic politicians use Kremlin support to resist Western norms. This creates a coordinated strategy that combines digital, religious, and political levers of influence.
Russian influence is no longer abstract, experts note. It exploits historical grievances, social conservatism, and institutional weakness to consolidate an illiberal model of governance, exporting centralized authority, limited pluralism, and the consolidation of cultural and political power. Understanding this dynamic is considered essential for preserving democratic norms and the EU integration process.
From Belgrade to Banja Luka and Skopje, Moscow’s strategy has evolved into a multi-layered campaign that combines cultural identity, Orthodox affiliation, extremist networks and influence operations. In September 2025, neo-Nazi and extremist groups from across Europe gathered in St. Petersburg under the auspices of the Russian Orthodox Church to launch the International Sovereign League. The gathering was attended by Forza Nuova from Italy, Golden Dawn from Greece and Serbian ultranationalist groups such as People’s Patrols and Serbian Action, along with Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev and nationalist thinker Aleksandr Dugin. The League’s mission – “to defend white Christian values against Western decadence” – demonstrated that Kremlin-linked networks provide platforms for extremist ideologies, lending religious legitimacy to radical political agendas.
Extremist networks also benefit from allies within the EU that provide legitimacy and space for their ideas to circulate. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has played a facilitating role, organizing gatherings such as the 2023 Demographic Forum in Budapest, which brings together ultranationalist politicians and pro-Russian ideologues from the Balkans. This normalizes a socially conservative and authoritarian model of governance that mirrors that of Russia.
In the 2025 local elections in North Macedonia, parties like United Macedonia campaigned against EU and NATO integration, calling for sovereignty and cultural preservation, while being supported by ideological networks linked to Moscow. In Serbia, the government’s refusal to implement sanctions against Russia has strengthened pro-Russian coalitions. Ultranationalist groups like the Serbian Oath Party have gained parliamentary representation and are cooperating with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, advocating anti-Western legislation that restricts civil society.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska illustrates another example. Milorad Dodik, the former president, has repeatedly visited Moscow to reaffirm pro-Russian positions, obstructing state reforms and promoting separatist rhetoric. In February 2025, Dodik’s government passed a “law on foreign agents” modeled on Russian legislation, restricting independent media and non-governmental organizations.
Russian influence also extends to civic and cultural life. In 2025, Serbia experienced some of the largest protests in decades over corruption and government failures. Authorities labeled the protests as “color revolutions” orchestrated by foreign powers, a narrative that was amplified by state-affiliated Russian and Serbian media.
Religious institutions are among the most effective carriers of pro-Russian narratives. The Serbian Orthodox Church mobilizes voters, legitimizes political positions, and amplifies narratives that align with Moscow’s strategic interests. Extremist leaders use this platform to normalize ultranationalist and anti-Western rhetoric, presenting it as a defense of tradition.
Moscow's strategy is not limited to Orthodox networks; it also collaborates with Islamic organizations in the Balkans to promote narratives of resistance to Western imperialism, showing strategic flexibility in building socio-political alliances.
Overall, Russia exports a combination of centralized authority, limited pluralism, and cultural traditionalism, normalizing deviation from democratic norms in countries with fragile institutions. European policymakers, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have condemned these interventions, underlining the importance of strengthening democratic institutions and independent media.
Experts warn that Russian influence in the Western Balkans is not episodic, but an ongoing trajectory that integrates extremist organizations, religious authority, and legal instruments into a coherent political model. This process reshapes political norms and expectations, gradually normalizing illiberal governance in a region already marked by institutional fragility and unresolved identity conflicts. /The Geopost
edition
t7 live
