Countries like Libya and Turkey, through which many migrants arrive in Europe, have been paid to help stem the flow, even at the cost of supporting questionable regimes. But having failed to block the arrivals of migrants, Europe will now have to deal with them. That is where it failed in 2015, and there is still no plan
Russia The Economist,
The Serbian capital, Belgrade, attracts many tourists every year. They go there to enjoy its diverse architecture and local meat-based cuisine. However, one group of newcomers in particular makes an impression. Few would have expected citizens of Burundi, the world's poorest African country, to arrive in the Balkans.
Yet thousands of them have flocked to Serbia since the country announced in 2018 that Burundians could enter without a visa, a rare privilege for Africans traveling to Europe. And to no one's surprise, they weren't there to admire the Belgrade Opera House.
The European Union border force has reported an increase in the number of Burundians arriving illegally in the bloc, parts of which border Serbia (as smugglers who demand $3000 to cross the border know all too well).
The EU has threatened the authorities in Belgrade that if this situation continues, it will make it difficult for Serbs themselves to join the union. Fake tourists from Burundi are not the only ones trying to come to Europe for a better life. Illegal arrivals to the EU have increased significantly recently.
Around 281.000 cases have been registered since the beginning of this year, or 77 percent more than in 2021. The latest available figures show that in August alone, around 84.500 asylum applications were filed in EU countries and their neighbors (this excludes Ukrainians, who do not need to apply for asylum to live in the EU for up to 3 years).
This wave is the largest since the 2015-2016 migration crisis that rocked the continent. At the time, a photo of a young Syrian child whose body had washed up on a beach went viral and sparked a generous, if belated and uneven, response, including Germany, which has taken in more than 1 million refugees.
Since the beginning of this year, 1.811 refugees have died in the Mediterranean, a staggering number. With the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis sweeping across Europe, few seem to have noticed this reality. But a political clash could change that.
On November 11, French authorities reluctantly allowed the Ocean Viking, a rescue ship carrying 230 migrants that was intercepted while trying to cross the Mediterranean, to dock. Italy had refused to allow the ship near its coast for weeks.
France intervened to avoid loss of life, and attacked its neighbor for “irresponsible” behavior and violations of legal norms. Italy’s new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, spent her first weeks in office trying to reassure EU partners, alarmed by her far-right platform and her past glorification of Mussolini.
For a moment it seemed as if she could create a duo with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who despite their opposing profiles could have a somewhat correct relationship. But this now seems impossible. As more immigrants will land on the shores of Europe, and with them there will be even more such tensions.
Afghans and Syrians are still fleeing due to the desperate situation in their countries.
With them are Asians and Africans who have been pushed into poverty by rising food and fuel prices, both linked to the war in Ukraine. The pandemic has only delayed migrants' efforts to reach Europe, not reduced them.
There is no doubt that climate change will push many more to try their luck in the West. For now, these changes are bringing unusually warm weather, helping to keep sea and land crossings open for longer, says Hugo Brady of the Vienna-based International Center for Migration Policy Development.
Europe has no intention of accepting them. Because since the beginning of the war, at least 5 million Ukrainians have entered EU countries. And unlike in 2015, the European economy is heading towards recession, diminishing both employment opportunities for immigrants and tax revenues to help them.
Some countries are already struggling. In Austria, asylum seekers are being housed in tents, living in conditions that have horrified aid organizations. In the Netherlands, a baby died in August in a reception center for migrants.
A significant increase in illegal crossings across the Channel forced Britain to pay France tens of millions of euros to patrol its beaches, with the aim of detecting and preventing migrants from setting off for the island.
The resurgence of the migrant crisis, albeit on a smaller scale than the previous one, poses two problems for Europe. The first is on a national level. Helping Ukrainian women and children fleeing Russian bombs is very popular with voters.
But the same is not true for accepting what are often male economic migrants from non-European countries. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared in 2015, “Weir schaffen das,” we can do it. But few people today agree with that approach. Populist politicians have gained ground across the bloc.
Consider Sweden, a country that was once relatively welcoming to asylum seekers. It is now run by a government backed by a party that is openly anti-immigrant. The second problem is coordination. Europe's approach to this problem is chaotic because of the mix of national and EU policies.
Southern Europeans oppose rules that force refugees to apply for asylum in the first country they arrive in, which are often coastal EU countries like Greece and Italy. They would like their fellow EU members to share the burden of this problem by agreeing to redistribute the migrants (most of whom would prefer to end up in places like Germany anyway).
Northern countries will only agree to a voluntary scheme, which has not worked well. And that has damaged trust within the bloc. For their part, southerners are accused of breaking the rules, mistreating asylum seekers and encouraging them to travel to other EU countries to seek refuge.
As a result, border controls that were once abolished within the bloc have been reintroduced in many countries. Improvements since 2015 have focused mainly on keeping migrants out of the union. Frontex, the EU border agency, has been significantly strengthened.
Countries like Libya and Turkey, through which many migrants arrive in Europe, have been paid to help stem the flow, even at the cost of supporting questionable regimes. But having failed to block the arrivals of migrants, Europe will now have to deal with them. That is where it failed in 2015, and there is still no plan.
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