The relief created by the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran is accompanied by considerable uncertainty. One of the key questions is whether the strategically important Strait of Hormuz will reopen to shipping.
What have both parties agreed on?
Shortly before his ultimatum expired, US President Donald Trump announced that, at the request of Pakistan, he had accepted a two-day ceasefire with Iran. On the Iranian regime's side, the National Security Council approved the ceasefire. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime corridor that plays a key role in the global economy due to the transport of oil and gas, would be opened.
Basis of the agreement
The basis of the agreement is a ten-point plan, which was submitted to Washington by the Iranian side. So far, neither the Islamic Republic of Iran nor the United States of America have officially made the content of the document public.
According to the Iranian Tasnim news agency, the ten-point plan includes a demand for a permanent cessation of aggressive actions. Iran would be allowed to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz and continue uranium enrichment. It also calls for the lifting of international sanctions and punitive measures imposed by the UN Security Council.
Fighting is expected to end on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Israel, however, denied this, stressing that the agreement does not apply to the fight against the Hezbollah militia.
Trump initially described the agreement as a “solid basis for negotiations.” According to him, almost all previous points of conflict had been resolved. However, there are considerable doubts about this assessment.
According to media reports, different versions of the ten-point plan are circulating, one in English and one in Persian (Farsi). The Associated Press reports that the Farsi version mentions "acceptance of uranium enrichment," while this wording is missing from the English version.
One of Trump's main justifications for launching attacks on Iran was to stop the country's nuclear program. For this reason, it seems unlikely that the American side will agree to this point in the peace talks currently planned.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned at a press conference that the United States is prepared for further strikes against Iran if Tehran does not hand over its enriched uranium. Furthermore, the US president threatened, in a post on his Truth Social platform, to impose tariffs on all countries that supply Iran with weapons in the future.
What is happening with the Strait of Hormuz?
Although Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi declared that the sea strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman would be reopened, he accompanied this announcement with the condition that such action would be taken "in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and taking into account technical limitations."
According to the Iranian Fars news agency, Iran has closed the strait again in protest against Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to this information, only two oil tankers managed to pass through the strait before maritime traffic was suspended again.
According to the Iranian leadership's assessment, Israel is violating the ceasefire coordinated with the United States through continued attacks against Hezbollah.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on the X platform that the ceasefire also expressly applies to Lebanon. US President Donald Trump, in a telephone interview with the PBS television channel, emphasized that Lebanon is not part of the agreement.
According to reports, the possibility of both Iran and Oman imposing tariffs on ships passing through the strait in the future is being discussed. From the perspective of experts, the fact that Iran may have a tool to influence the world economy is considered dangerous.
"It is hard to imagine that the United States and the world would accept a situation in which Iran maintains control over a key energy hub indefinitely. That would be a significantly worse outcome than the situation before the war," Richard Fontaine of the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security told The New York Times.
How stable is the agreement?
Many points still remain unclear, including the question of whether the ceasefire will actually be respected and whether it will enter into force in a sustainable manner.
The Gulf states of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also reported on the morning after the agreement was reached about attacks by Iran. There was talk of a wave of Iranian attacks, during which 28 Iranian drones were intercepted. The attacks were also confirmed by Iranian state television, which said they were a response to previous bombings of Iranian oil facilities in the Persian Gulf.
The agreed ceasefire may offer a temporary pause, but it remains a fragile situation, Marco Overhaus of the Science and Politics Foundation told NDR Info. According to him, everything depends on whether Iran will now allow commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
It is clear that both sides are presenting the agreement as a success, while Iran is expected to be militarily weakened after more than a month of war. According to expert assessments, however, one cannot yet speak of a real victory for the United States – even considering the details of the ten-point plan so far.
"What has been achieved so far looks more like a strategic loss for the United States," security expert Carlo Masala told Deutschlandfunk. In the ten-point plan, he said, "there are very few concessions from Iran to American demands from the very beginning."
How is the process expected to continue?
The first direct talks are expected to take place in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital, on Friday. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from both sides to discuss a final agreement aimed at resolving the conflict. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt may also participate in the talks.
European heads of state and government are also looking to engage diplomatically. As early as Wednesday (038.04.2026), British Prime Minister Keir Starmer headed to the Gulf region to hold talks with regional allies on diplomatic efforts to preserve the ceasefire.
The European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, also announced that she would travel to the region. The German federal government stated that it supports diplomatic efforts. According to it, Germany is in close contact with the United States and other international partners. "Germany will contribute in an appropriate way to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," the statement said. /DW
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