Within just 24 hours, the price of fuel in Kosovo increased by at least 14 cents.
On March 3, a liter of diesel at some gas stations reached 1.39 euros, while gasoline reached 1.38 euros.
The day before, prices were up to 1.25 euros for diesel and 1.24 euros for gasoline.
The rapid movement of the local market is no coincidence – it reflects the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the upheaval of the global energy supply chain.
Geopolitical tensions and the domino effect
The rise was fueled by tensions between the US, Israel and Iran, which pushed the price of Brent oil - the global benchmark - up as much as 10 percent on March 1.
The uncertainty about supply disruptions increased especially after the suspension of some shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
This strait, through which over a fifth of global daily oil supplies pass, serves as an export artery for countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
Any risk of blockage or restriction of circulation immediately translates into increased insurance and transportation costs and, consequently, higher prices on world markets.
Kosovo, completely dependent on imports
Kosovo does not have its own refinery and is supplied entirely by imports.
Last year alone, the country imported over 478 million euros of oil and more than 51 million euros of gasoline.
The main supplies come from Germany, Hungary, Greece, Albania and the United Arab Emirates, while a significant portion enters through the Porto Romano terminal in Durres.
This structural dependence makes the local market extremely sensitive to global fluctuations.
The chairman of the Kosovo Oilmen's Association, Fadil Berjani, tells Radio Free Europe that prices may continue to fluctuate, as companies are supplied according to current stock market prices and do not hold large reserves.
He adds that there is no room for panic and that no shortages are expected in the market, but emphasizes that price dynamics remain dependent on international developments.
Institutions between warnings and temporary measures
Faced with the rapid increase in prices, the Ministry of Industry, Entrepreneurship and Trade (MINT) of Kosovo announced an intensification of inspections and the preparation of daily reports on prices.
According to the ministry, in the event of unjustified increases, protective measures and temporary price adjustments may be applied, with supervision by Kosovo Customs and the Tax Administration.
A similar decision was made on December 16, 2025 by then-Minister Rozeta Hajdari, setting a maximum trade margin of 2 cents per liter in wholesale sales and 12 cents per liter in retail sales. This decision remained in effect for only 30 days.
Former Kosovo Customs Director Naim Huruglica tells Radio Free Europe that authorities should consider continuing protective measures to guarantee fair competition and consumer protection in times of crisis.
The risk of abuses and the role of competition
In crisis situations, market experts warn, the door to abuse also opens.
Oil market expert Jakup Gashi tells Radio Free Europe that there is a risk that companies will increase prices even for quantities purchased earlier at lower prices.
According to him, the inspectorate should verify the time of import and the real cost to avoid abuses.
The Kosovo Competition Authority (KCA) also warns of investigations into any suspicious price changes, or possible agreements between operators to set them the same way.
However, the AKM did not explain to REL what concrete measures will be taken if violations are found.
Chain tension
The pressure doesn't just come from oil.
On the Hungarian HUPX exchange, from which Kosovo also imports, the price of electricity rose from around 60 euros per megawatt-hour on March 1 to 115 euros on March 3 – almost doubling in two days.
At the same time, the reference gas price in Europe increased by 33 percent on March 3, after another increase of about 50 percent earlier in the week.
An additional factor was the decision of Qatar's state-owned company, QatarEnergy, to halt production following military attacks on its facilities.
The simultaneous growth of oil, energy, and gas creates a ripple effect on the economy.
According to Gashi, this price increase will increase transportation costs, which constitute a large part of expenses for manufacturing and trading companies.
"Petroleum derivatives are an essential part of the energy sector – which makes them vital to every other branch of the economy," he says.
A similar warning was issued by the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), which assessed that the increase in fuel prices directly affects the cost of transportation and production of food products and basic services.
According to her, this situation "will further increase the cost of living," increasing the risk of a new wave of inflation.
In this context, the Chamber proposed that institutions consider reducing or temporarily suspending some taxes for the most affected businesses, as well as reviewing the tax burden on essential products.
Such measures, according to her, would help cushion the blow to consumers and support local production and exports, in a period of heightened economic uncertainty.
This situation is also reminiscent of the crisis that began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when global oil, gas, and electricity prices soared within days.
At that time, the sudden increase in prices directly translated into higher prices for fuel and basic products in Kosovo and elsewhere. /REL/
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