For the first time in 36 years, Iran is in a situation where it must elect a new supreme leader.
This has only happened once before, in 1989, when the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, paved the way for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to take the helm.
Khomeini died of natural causes, while Khamenei was killed on the first day of joint US and Israeli military attacks against Iran, on February 28.
Now, Iran's 88-member Assembly of Experts must meet in secret to elect his successor.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, tells Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that whoever is elected will be elected on a single criterion: political suitability.
According to him, the Assembly of Experts today is a "body that only stamps decisions," while the process is guided more by circumstances than by the prior preparation of the candidates.
Many names have been mentioned over the years as possible successors to Khamenei, but, currently, three candidates are considered the main favorites.
Mojtaba Khamenei: The choice of dynasty
The 56-year-old second son of the late supreme leader has long been described as a "gatekeeper."
Although he has never held a formal government post, the young Khamenei has spent two decades in his father's office, coordinating between the clerical establishment and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
It is believed that he is supported by the IRGC and that his selection would be a continuation of his father's policy.
Supporters also argue that his close proximity to the security apparatus makes him the only candidate capable of maintaining order during an active conflict.
However, his elevation to this post risks causing internal anger, especially among the Islamic Republic's core supporters.
Critics argue that the move towards "hereditary rule" runs counter to the very anti-monarchist roots of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
"The image that is created when a son succeeds his father is somewhat similar to the image of a monarchy," Farzan Sabet, a senior fellow at the Geneva Graduate School, told Radio Free Europe in 2024.
A member of the Assembly of Experts said in 2024 that the elder Khamenei opposed the idea of his son succeeding him.
Moreover, even the relatively low clerical rank of the new Khamenei, Hojatoleslam, is a matter of debate.
Recent investigations, including a report by the Bloomberg agency, published in late January, highlighted a number of real estate assets linked to the new Khamenei, who has been under US sanctions since 2019.
Reports suggest he has managed to maintain and expand a global network of luxury assets, through intermediaries and shell companies.
Alireza Arafi: The safe choice
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, 67, is considered the "typical man of the system."
Currently, he serves on the Interim Leadership Council, with three members.
Arafi has climbed every institutional ladder – from heading the global Al-Mustafa University to leading the entire system of religious seminaries in Iran.
He entered the political arena in 2019, when he was appointed by Khamenei to the position of one of six clerics on the powerful Guardian Council.
Arafi is considered a safe institutional choice. He meets the necessary clerical credentials and has served as a loyal administrator – without being publicly linked to violence against domestic protests.
According to Vatanka, Arafi's elevation was no coincidence. He says Khamenei's willingness to appoint him to important roles "shows that he had great confidence in his bureaucratic abilities."
He describes Arafi as a "capable soldier of the system" who is likely to put the survival of the Islamic Republic ahead of personal charisma.
Compared to figures like the head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, whom Vatanka says has "a lot of blood on his hands," Arafi is presented as an administrator with a cleaner reputation, who may have the support of the IRGC "for the sake of continuity."
Although he is well-known in religious circles, he is far from a household name for most Iranians.
He lacks a personal power base and may find it difficult to secure the absolute loyalty of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Hassan Khomeini: The Last Card
Hassan Khomeini, 53, is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini.
A more moderate cleric, with close ties to the reformist camp, he has long been overshadowed by the hardline.
But his name has been mentioned as a possible candidate, especially after US President Donald Trump said he would prefer a "more moderate" leader in Tehran.
For a clerical system whose legitimacy is weakening and facing international isolation, Hassan Khomeini could be a turning point.
He is associated with reformist circles and has supported more social freedoms and reduced diplomatic tensions.
However, he is not liked by the regime's hard line.
In a speech in 2022, the boos and heckling from the audience against him became so loud that Ali Khamenei rebuked those who were obstructing him when he took the stage behind him.
The fact that in 2016, the Guardian Council disqualified him from running for elections to the Assembly of Experts indicates that the IRGC would only accept him if the Islamic Republic was on the verge of complete collapse.
"Save what's left"
Vatanka says that whoever takes power under these circumstances will not have much opportunity to implement any major missions.
Taking control of a country under military attack, with a tired population and a weakened economy, would force even a dedicated ideologue to act with pragmatism, he said.
"Now is not the time to go any deeper. Now is the time to end this war, to reorganize and to preserve what is left of the country," Vatanka concludes./REL
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