German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who maintains good communication with the US president, is now distancing himself from the war in Iran. Merz does not even raise the possibility of Germany's involvement in this war.
Written by: Christoph Hasselbach, Nina Werkhäuser
Friedrich Merz has gone through two major changes in his relationship with Donald Trump. A year ago, Merz presented himself as a harsh critic of Trump. Then came a long phase of rapprochement – his political opponents called this servility – towards the American president. This culminated in a visit to the White House about two weeks ago. There, the chancellor expressed his understanding of the American-Israeli attacks on Iran, during which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was also deliberately assassinated. Merz did not want to lecture Trump on issues of international law in any way.
Now the chancellor is making a sharp U-turn; according to him, Trump is clearly overreacting on the Iran issue.
It was the single big question that preoccupied political opinion in Berlin on Monday (March 16, 2026): Will the Bundeswehr participate in securing the Strait of Hormuz?
A clear answer came from the chancellor in the afternoon: "The United States and Israel did not consult us even before this war. On Iran, there was never a joint decision on whether to act," Merz said.
"Therefore, the question of how Germany will engage militarily in this matter does not even arise. We will not do it."
Trump accompanied his request with the warning that a bleak future awaits NATO if it does not help secure the strait, which is crucial for oil transportation.
The German government does not agree with this. NATO's task is to protect the territory of the alliance, a government spokesman stressed. It is well known that the Strait of Hormuz is not part of this territory.
The same position was also emphasized by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), who received his Latvian counterpart, Andris Spruds, this morning.
"It's not our war, we didn't start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a quick conclusion, but other warships in the region, most likely, will not help."
Pistorius also does not consider the existing EU mission "EUNAVFOR ASPIDES", which was proposed by EU representatives, to be appropriate.
This mission is focused on securing sea lanes in the Red Sea. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is completely different, both from a geopolitical and military point of view.
Energy prices are weighing on the economy
For several days now, Merz has been once again entering a confrontational course with Trump.
“With each day of the war, more questions arise. Above all, we are concerned that there seems to be no common plan (between the US and Israel) for how this war can be ended quickly and convincingly,” he said, about ten days after the war began. An endless war is not in Germany’s interest.
He warned of far-reaching consequences for Europe, including in the areas of security, energy supply and migration.
The sharp rise in oil prices in particular shows how directly the war is affecting Germany. And this is precisely what touches Merz at a particularly sensitive point, because economic recovery is currently his most important political objective.
The recovery is progressing with great difficulty, even without the factors of the war in Iran, and only thanks to gigantic new debts is the country emerging from recession. Companies are going bankrupt en masse, moving their activities abroad, and unemployment is rising.
The Ifo Institute has now predicted how the war in Iran is expected to affect the German economy. In any case, the war will dampen the economic recovery and increase inflation. If the war ends soon, according to the Ifo Institute, economic growth this year would be slowed by 0,2 percent, holding back economic growth to 0,8 percent. If the war lasts longer, then the slowdown in economic growth would be 0,4 percent.
Merz in a double dilemma
Merz knows that the economic situation will likely decide the success or failure of his government – and that it also plays an important role in the upcoming state elections.
After elections in Baden-Württemberg in early March, where his CDU narrowly lost to the Greens, parliamentary elections will be held in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, followed by elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, in eastern Germany, in September.
In the latter two countries, according to the polls so far, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) – a partly far-right party – is leading by a large margin. The AfD has long called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia. The fact that Donald Trump now also wants to lift sanctions in the energy sector, in order to reduce pressure on prices, is very much in the AfD's favor in the campaign.
This means a double dilemma for Friedrich Merz. He wants to keep sanctions against Moscow in place to keep Russia under pressure in the war in Ukraine. But a large majority of citizens in Germany expect the federal government, above all, to do something about high energy prices. Polls also show an overwhelming rejection of Germany's involvement in the Iran war by the population. This is the second dilemma for the chancellor: because he wants to present himself as a reliable alliance partner with the US.
After, with great difficulty – and perhaps with much political sacrifice – he had built a good relationship with Trump, Merz now feels that he is once again forced to step back.
However, Merz is not alone in Europe with his refusal to make a military contribution.
Great Britain and France, both with powerful naval forces, have so far expressed themselves only very vaguely about their commitments.
The willingness to follow the United States into a war that Trump has single-handedly started is very low there – just as it is in Germany.
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