The war in the Middle East has plunged Swiss watchmakers into uncertainty, testing the resilience of an iconic national industry already shaken by several crises.
Behind the luxurious stands at the "Watch and Wonder" fair in Geneva, the industry's biggest annual showcase, the conflict is on everyone's lips.
The war is not the first crisis the watch industry has faced in recent years, said Elie Bernheim, the chief executive of Raymond Weil, a family business started by his grandfather that generates roughly 10 percent of its revenue in the Middle East.
“There was the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,” then the arrival of the smartwatch, when “the worst was predicted for the watchmaking industry”; the Covid-19 pandemic and “US tariffs last year,” Bernheim said.
And yet, in the long run, "the watchmaking industry has demonstrated considerable resilience," he added.
Over the last 20 years, Swiss watch exports have more than doubled, despite all the challenges.
The unusual aspect of current events in the Middle East — a war that has seen Tehran target Gulf countries in retaliation for American and Israeli attacks on Iran — is that “nothing can be predicted,” Bernheim said.
"Everything can change from one day to the next, we have no control and I think that's the most destabilizing thing," he said.
Uncertain consumer climate
Like many watchmakers, Bertrand Meylan, co-owner of the H. Moser brand, believes the war could have an impact on the global consumer climate.
"The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the risk that anxiety will spread to the rest of the economy," he told AFP, noting that "people don't buy during times of anxiety."
On the ground, "brands that depend on tourism are suffering enormously," said the Dubai-based entrepreneur.
But with local customers, business continues to thrive, "a bit like during the Covid period," when consumers, unable to travel, had more time and disposable income to buy a watch.
His brand generates six percent of its revenue in the Middle East.
10 percent of exports
The Geneva Watch Fair, which runs until April 20, is expecting 65 leading watch brands, including Rolex, Patek Philippe and Cartier, to showcase their latest creations.
This year's hours and wonders come after two difficult years for the sector, with a decline in demand in China followed by US tariffs.
Swiss watch exports fell first by 2.8 percent in 2024 and then by 1.7 percent in 2025, to 25.6 billion francs.
Last year, the Middle East as a whole accounted for about 10 percent of the sector's exports, which is "already too much," Yves Bugmann, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, told AFP, thelocal reports, albinfo.ch transmits.
By comparison, the United States – the main market for Swiss watchmakers – represents 17 percent of exports, he explained.
Japan comes in second, ahead of mainland China, Hong Kong, Britain and then Singapore.
The United Arab Emirates is the largest market in the Middle East, ranking eighth among the top 10 destination countries, nestled between neighbors Switzerland, France and Germany.
Saudi Arabia is the 15th largest market, with Qatar 21st, Kuwait 25th and Bahrain 27th.
At the beginning of the year, Bugmann was “relatively confident” about the industry’s prospects in 2026.
However, "the war in the Middle East is a drastic change" and it is "too early to make predictions" about its impact, he said.
Everything will depend on "how the conflict develops"./Albinfo.ch
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