Former NATO spokesman Jamie Shea has spoken about the impact that the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran could have on Kosovo and the Balkan region.
He emphasizes that, although NATO is not expected to be directly involved, global developments are affecting the alliance's strategic and political priorities in the region.
"No, I don't see NATO intervening in the Israel-Iran war, although some allies could help Israel, as they have done in the past, by using their planes and ships to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel. The US will use NATO bases in Europe to station its ships, fighter jets and tankers, ready to move to the Middle East if necessary. Trump will probably use the NATO summit next week to seek support from allies for his policies towards Iran."
Shea says NATO will stay out of the conflict, but its infrastructures in Europe will play a logistical role for the US.
"I don't see this situation having a direct impact on Kosovo or the Western Balkans, except that the US and perhaps some other allies could increase security at their embassies, companies and military bases, as they may expect Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks. The US could also seek permission for bases or to fly over some countries, depending on how the military situation develops. The real problem is that we now have another major international crisis (like the one in Ukraine), which is diverting attention and political energy from the current challenges in the Western Balkans, especially the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue."
The international crisis expert warns that Kosovo could be indirectly affected through the shift in international focus.
"I don't see an international coalition being formed against Iran. It would be politically difficult for European countries to enter the war, as long as there is no direct threat or provocation from Iran, and the Israelis only want US help with bombing, not Europeans, in order to maintain maximum control."
He estimates for klankosova.tv that the division between American and European interests makes a coordinated approach against Iran impossible.
"Trump is proud of his past role in mediating between Kosovo and Serbia and has mentioned that he would like to return to help again. But the geopolitical landscape is now much more confrontational and crisis-ridden than in his first term, so it is uncertain whether Trump will have the time and focus to advance issues in the Western Balkans."
For klankosova.tv, in this turbulent global phase, he questioned whether Trump will be able to seriously re-engage in the Kosovo-Serbia process.
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