Perhaps the blame lies in the massive internet outages ordered by the state for making life difficult for millions of Russians, especially those in Moscow.
Perhaps the fault lies in the Ukrainian drone attacks that have disrupted Russian flight plans and significantly limited Russian oil exports to the Baltic Sea.
Perhaps the culprit is the culling of infected livestock, which has prompted fierce protests from farmers in Siberia.
Perhaps, perhaps, the main culprit is the war against Ukraine, which, despite the Kremlin's promises of a quick victory, is continuing into its fifth year, because Kiev's forces are strongly challenging Russia, which has suffered the loss of about 1.2 million soldiers: killed and wounded during this war.
Regardless of the reasons, the truth is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer as popular as he once was.
In recent weeks, a series of public opinion polls – including two conducted by state-affiliated pollsters – have noted a decline in support for Putin.
FOM, whose main client is the Presidential Administration, a powerful policy-making body within the Kremlin, has recorded the lowest level of public trust in Putin since September 2022.
The drop in ratings does not indicate a political crisis for the Kremlin; Putin remains the country's undisputed leader.
Kremlin officials – above all the Presidential Administration – have spent years covering up electoral processes in an attempt to create the perception that Russians are choosing their leaders in a genuine way, in what is called a “managed democracy.”
But Kremlin officials are sensitive to shifts in public opinion, experts say, and the current shift is being closely analyzed within the administration by officials charged with managing the political system.
"It is important and is also supported by various events and incidents," said Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, director of the Russia Institute at King's College London, pointing to the recent case involving an aggressive pro-Kremlin lawyer who ended up in a psychiatric hospital after harshly criticizing Putin.
The change in mood could be explained by several factors, she said: disruptions from Ukrainian drones; blocking of apps like Telegram, WhatsApp and the internet; unfulfilled expectations and promises from the US-backed peace negotiations in Ukraine; general fatigue from a protracted war that has begun to more visibly affect the economy.
"This does not mean that revolution is on the horizon, but rising tensions are not good for the Kremlin," she said.
“We still don’t have enough data to link specific social processes in specific social groups to this downward trend,” said Konstantin Gaaze, a Tel Aviv-based sociologist and former adviser to the Russian government. “Who exactly is tired, disappointed, or angry?”
“We have seen major intrusions into daily life – internet outages and restrictions – but we are also seeing a more prolonged trend,” he said, adding: “The war is penetrating deeper and deeper into the heart of European Russia. Drones, attacks on oil refineries, and so on. These things accumulate over time.”
Cows, cucumbers and technology
For years, technology regulators – and security agencies – have tightened control over the internet within Russia, installing surveillance equipment, passing restrictive laws, forcing tech companies to sell to Kremlin-linked owners, and slowing down sites and apps that don't comply with regulations.
However, over the past year, officials have begun turning off mobile internet service in an increasing number of regions.
The Kremlin has justified the outages as a way to prevent Ukrainian drones from using Russian networks for navigation. But the slowdowns, along with restrictions on popular apps like Telegram and WhatsApp, have made life difficult for millions of people, especially in Moscow.
More and more Russians are losing patience with government efforts to throttle/kill off the country's two most popular messenger apps — WhatsApp and Telegram — and push people onto the state-backed app Max. @levada_ru pic.twitter.com/KW1vAEoffF
- Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) April 1, 2026
A survey published last month by the Levada Center, one of the last independent pollsters in Russia, showed a noticeable increase in Russians facing internet problems, and a growing number saying they are unhappy with the authorities' actions to restrict Telegram and WhatsApp.
Meanwhile, in early February, veterinary authorities in several regions of Siberia ordered the quarantine and killing of tens of thousands of cows and other livestock, citing rabies and another highly infectious bacterial disease.
Farmers and herders have complained, saying the measure is excessive and is destroying livelihoods in poorer towns and villages. Some complained that the compensation paid for destroyed livestock was inadequate.
Some even took their protest to Moscow's Red Square, a political act that is rare these days.
Russia's economy is also slowing significantly, after years of rapid growth fueled by government spending on the war. Inflation has pushed up prices, prompting a sharp rise in interest rates. Meanwhile, wage growth has stalled.
Don't mention the war.
And then comes the war in Ukraine, which turned four years old on February 24.
US President Donald Trump made ending the war a priority after taking office in January 2025. His special envoys have met repeatedly with Putin and his negotiators have organized several rounds of bilateral and trilateral talks.
But, the talks have stalled.
Months of US and Israeli attacks on Iran are partly to blame. Russia's large demands for land and security guarantees, which Ukraine says are unacceptable and potentially dangerous, are also responsible.
Moreover, the Ukrainian army – although smaller and largely under-equipped with artillery, ammunition, and heavy weaponry – has not allowed Russian troops to advance quickly enough to achieve the Kremlin's war goals. It has inflicted astronomical losses on Russian forces.
According to FOM data, the last time Putin's ratings fell significantly was in September 2022, seven months after the start of the war.
The Kremlin then realized that the war would not end quickly. Some had predicted that Russia would subjugate Ukraine within days or weeks. Putin ordered a large-scale mobilization, shaking Russian society and prompting the flight of hundreds of thousands of people from the country.
Inside Russia, dissent has been almost completely suppressed. Yevgeny Prigozhin of St. Petersburg, who built a powerful private mercenary force and then staged a failed rebellion in 2023, was one of the most vocal critics of the way the war was being waged. He died two months later in a plane crash believed to be a deliberate assassination.
Last month, Ilya Remeslo, a vocal Kremlin supporter, touched a public nerve when he published a scathing critique of the war and the general state of the country. He also attacked Putin himself, calling him a war criminal and complaining that he was destroying Russia.
Less than two days after the article was published, Remeslo was admitted to a psychiatric hospital, although it is not clear whether it was voluntary or involuntary. His whereabouts are unclear.
"What has happened now? A perfect storm has begun," said Yelena Koneva, a sociologist and public opinion marketing specialist, in a commentary published by Ekho, the former popular Moscow radio station.
“Right now, this big snowdrift called ‘support for Putin’ is starting to melt. It won’t collapse immediately; it melts and melts and melts,” she wrote. “It’s a slow, really significant change. This is the first sign and it can’t be stopped by further repression, there are many reasons.” /REL
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