Friedrich Merz's government, after a year in office, is receiving successive negative evaluations. But what about the part of foreign policy that deals with the Western Balkans?
The answers vary depending on who you ask in Berlin. A year after Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic-Social Democratic government took office, a large majority of citizens are dissatisfied with its performance. But these findings are dominated by issues related to domestic politics, with foreign policy playing no major role.
However, this government, as well as the previous government of the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, is facing numerous challenges, mainly due to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Added to this are the ongoing crises in the Middle East, which, especially the recent Iran crisis, are increasingly affecting Europe and its largest economy, Germany.
Removing the Special Envoy function is a bad signal.
In the midst of these existential challenges, the public is paying little attention to Berlin's relations with the Western Balkans. Observers of Berlin's relations with the South-Eastern European region immediately noticed that the new government abolished the position of the German government's Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, established during the previous government. This position was held by the Green Party politician Manuel Sarrazin. During his tenure, the region was regularly on the list of German foreign policy priorities, as evidenced by the numerous agreements signed during this period as part of the Berlin Process.
The new government abolished this function, explaining that it was a matter of austerity measures that had been implemented in all ministries, including the Foreign Ministry. But the new function would not fit into the new concept of foreign policy, which after many years is in the hands of one party. Foreign policy is now a joint project of the Chancellor's office and the Foreign Ministry under the leadership of Merz's close associate from the same party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Johann Wadephul.
Continuity policy
Although the new government initially raised scepticism about the continuity of its policy towards the Western Balkans by abolishing the function of the Special Commissioner for the Western Balkans, the tour of the new Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in the region has tried to allay these fears. Peter Beyer, a representative of the ruling CDU and a member of the Bundestag's foreign policy committee, believes that Friedrich Merz's government has continued to keep the Western Balkans at the centre of its foreign policy priorities.
"In the first year of Friedrich Merz's mandate, the German government continued the policy of previous years towards the Western Balkans and with the important visit of the Foreign Minister to the six Western Balkan countries clearly emphasized the strategic importance of the region. It is precisely in light of geopolitical tensions, especially due to Russian influence, that the Western Balkans are more than ever in the focus of German foreign policy," Beyer said when asked by DW.
However, he insists that it is not just about the continuation of the previous government's policy, but about the policy, the foundations of which were laid by Christian Democratic Chancellor Angela Merkel, with the Berlin Process as its cornerstone.
Berlin took a leading role
His colleague from the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Adis Ahmetovic, believes that Germany, by supporting the countries of the region on the path towards the European Union, should create the conditions for full integration into the Euro-Atlantic value system.
"There is a clear determination that we see the six Western Balkan countries as an integral part of the EU. For this reason, we particularly support Montenegro and Albania, which are considered leaders in this process. But to be honest, the integration of these countries into the EU needs to be accelerated, given the geopolitical challenges. In times of rising protectionism and global nationalism, Europe needs to prove that it has the strength to overcome itself and expand the EU. This is what this federal government is committed to," Ahmetović said in an interview with DW.
But analysts are more skeptical when they look at the Merz government's performance in the region's EU integration process. Marina Vulovic from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin speaks of a "cautious course."
"Although Germany has clearly decided on the European perspective of the region, it is often guided by external stimuli, for example initiatives of the European Commission or the geopolitical context, instead of taking the leading role itself. While the Foreign Minister with his three-day tour of six countries showed a greater commitment to the Western Balkans, the Chancellor remains more cautious in his statements," Vulovic believes.
AfD: Western Balkans important for Germany and Europe
A surprisingly positive opinion about the first 12 months of Friedrich Merz's policy towards the Western Balkans comes from the ranks of the right-wing opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which usually represents positions diametrically opposed to the ruling coalition, also in policy towards the Western Balkans.
"In my opinion, the balance of the German government under Friedrich Merz towards the Western Balkan countries after a year is mixed. On the one hand, it should be noted that the region has not completely disappeared from political attention. Diplomatic initiatives have continued, talks have been held within the framework of the Berlin process and some progress has been made in certain steps towards integration towards the European Union. Precisely in terms of stability in Southeast Europe, the Western Balkans remain an important security policy area for Germany and Europe," the AfD representative and member of the German-Southern European parliamentary group tells DW.
But he concludes that Germany will have to take a leading role and not just react to crises or initiatives from Brussels. "When it comes to the Western Balkans, Germany lacks a clear strategic line," concludes the representative of the largest opposition parliamentary group in the Bundestag.
Lack of clear support for reformist forces
Boris Mijatovic, a rapporteur for the opposition Green party, has a largely negative assessment of the effects of Friedrich Merz's government in the Western Balkans. At the same time, he tells DW, countries such as Montenegro, but also Albania and North Macedonia, would urgently need the German government's political support in implementing the necessary reforms.
Mijatovic, who is often in the region, believes that the German government is not showing enough insight into the increasingly powerful forces that are pushing the countries of the region backward.
"In the foreign policy of the ruling coalition, very little attention is paid to the fact that in Serbia, as well as in Bosnia and Herzegovina, authoritarian politicians encourage anti-democratic and thus anti-European attitudes. The German government has so far paid just as little attention to the protests in Serbia as it has to the extremely fragile political situation in the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Political pressure from Germany is needed here, so that these two countries do not slide further," Mijatović concludes.
Nikola Xaviereff from the German Association for Foreign Policy (DGAP) also believes that the Merz government has made no effort to give new impetus in its first year, "neither on the bilateral level nor in the enlargement process," as he tells DW. The only exception is the "symbolic support" for the most likely new member, Montenegro.
"German policy nominally classifies the Western Balkans into four or five of its priorities, but has not shown how this is implemented in policy on the ground: there are no messages towards Serbia, no direction in efforts to accelerate and redefine the EU enlargement model, no new recalibration towards the region, where the US is changing its normative approach to the economy, and in the end they are somehow moving away from promoting liberal solutions for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo," Xaviereff concludes. /DW
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