The capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by the United States, hailed by President Donald Trump as stunning and powerful, leaves much uncertainty about who is running the oil-rich country.
Trump said on Saturday that Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, part of a powerful clique at the head of the country's government, had been sworn in after Maduro's arrest and that she had spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, fueling rumors that she would take over the country.
Under Venezuela's constitution, Rodriguez becomes acting president in Maduro's absence, and the country's highest court ordered her to take office on Saturday evening.
But shortly after Trump spoke to the press, Rodriguez appeared on state television, accompanied by her brother, National Assembly speaker Jorge Rodriguez, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, and said that Maduro remained the sole president of Venezuela.
Their joint appearance showed that the group that shared power with Maduro is staying united – at least for now.
On Saturday, Trump publicly closed the door to cooperation with opposition leader and Nobel Prize winner Maria Corina Machado - widely considered Maduro's most credible opponent - saying she lacks support domestically.
After Machado was barred from running in Venezuela's 2024 elections, international observers say her replacement candidate won the election convincingly, despite Maduro's government's claims of victory.
Government in Venezuela
For more than 10 years, real power in Venezuela has been held by a small circle of senior officials.
However, analysts and officials say the system depends on a vast network of loyalists and justice agencies, fueled by corruption and oversight.
Within the inner circle, a civil-military balance prevails. Each member has their own interests and patronage networks. Currently, Rodriguez and her brother represent the civilian wing. Padrino and Cabello represent the military wing.
This power structure makes overthrowing the current Venezuelan government more complicated than simply removing Maduro, according to interviews with current and former U.S. officials, Venezuelan and American military analysts, and security consultants to the Venezuelan opposition.
"You can remove as many parts of the Venezuelan government as you want, but it would take multiple actors at different levels to bring about real change," said a former US official involved in criminal investigations in Venezuela.
A big question mark surrounds Cabello, who exerts influence over the country's military and civilian counterintelligence agencies, which carry out domestic espionage.
“The focus now is on Diosdado Cabello,” said Venezuelan military strategist Jose Garcia. “Because he is the most ideological, the most violent and the most unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”
The United Nations has found that both SEBIN, the civilian agency, and DGCIM, the military intelligence service, committed crimes against humanity as part of a state plan to suppress opponents.
Eleven former detainees - including some who were once security personnel themselves - described to Reuters electric shocks and sexual abuse at secret DGCIM centers, in interviews conducted before Maduro's capture.
“They want you to feel like a cockroach in an elephant cage, that they are bigger,” said a former DGCIM agent who was arrested and charged with treason in 2020 after having contacts with military dissidents.
In recent weeks, as the United States has been carrying out the largest military buildup in Latin America in decades, Cabello has appeared live on television ordering the DGCIM to “go and catch the terrorists” and warning that “anyone who deviates, we will find out.”
He repeated this rhetoric in an appearance on state television on Saturday, wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet, surrounded by heavily armed guards.
Cabello has also been closely associated with pro-government militias, particularly groups of armed civilians riding motorcycles, known as ""collectives".
Generals control key sectors
Cabello, a former military officer and important figure in the Socialist Party, has influence over a large part of the armed forces, even though Venezuela's military has been officially led by Defense Minister Padrino for more than ten years.
Venezuela has up to 2.000 generals and admirals, more than double the number in the United States. Senior and retired officers control food distribution, raw materials and the state oil company PDVSA, while dozens of generals are members of the boards of private companies.
Beyond contracts, military officials also profit from illegal trade, according to defectors and current and former American investigators.
Documents from an opposition security consultant, shared with the US military and seen by Reuters, say commanders close to Cabello and Padrino have been assigned to key brigades along Venezuela's borders and in industrial centers.
These brigades, while tactically important, are also located on major smuggling routes.
"There are about 20 to 50 officers in the Venezuelan military who need to be removed, maybe even more, to completely overthrow this regime," said a lawyer who has represented a member of the Venezuelan senior leadership.
Perhaps some are considering switching sides. The lawyer said about a dozen former officials and generals were contacted after Maduro's capture, hoping to strike a deal with the US, offering information in exchange for safe passage and legal immunity.
But those close to Cabello said he is not currently interested in such a deal, the lawyer said. /REL
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