The European Council is heading towards a reorganization.
Its longest-serving member, Viktor Orbán, is stepping down after a crushing defeat in parliamentary elections that abruptly ended his 16 years of uninterrupted and sometimes unchecked rule. For the first time in a generation, Hungary will be led by a different prime minister, Péter Magyar, from a different party, Tisza.
The changing of the guard automatically alters the power dynamics in the European Union, where Hungary, under Orbán's tight control, has become synonymous with division and obstruction, angering leaders on the left, right and center.
His notorious use of the veto, a legal tool conceived as a last resort that Orbán has made commonplace, was particularly irritating to other member states. His vetoes were variously described as “transactional,” “bad faith,” “unacceptable,” and “blackmail.”
A senior diplomat once joked that Orbán's vetoes were like Russian dolls because "you never know what comes next."
In recent weeks, the puppet comparison turned into a “Trojan Horse” after shocking revelations that Orbán’s foreign minister regularly briefed his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, on key EU decisions. For many, the situation was simply untenable.
This irritation explains why the leaders were so enthusiastic in congratulating the Hungarians.
“Hungary has returned to the heart of Europe, where it has always belonged,” said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, who was demonized by Orbán’s failed campaign as an enemy of Hungary.
Emmanuel Macron of France encouraged Hungarians to “join forces for a strong, secure and above all united Europe”, while Pedro Sánchez of Spain declared that European values had won. Friedrich Merz of Germany was more candid, admitting that he was “very grateful and relieved” by the results and predicting that “things will be easier now”.
Despite having attended EU summits for 16 consecutive years, Orbán was noticeably overlooked and received very little attention in the flood of messages.
Italy's Giorgia Meloni and the Czech Republic's Andrej Babiš, two like-minded colleagues, were among the few to openly pay tribute to the outgoing prime minister.
"I know that even from the opposition, he will continue to serve his nation," Meloni said.
Meanwhile, in Brussels, the main stage of Orbán's veto, diplomats and officials are wondering what kind of Hungary will emerge after the historic elections.
For some, the future scenario is still difficult to imagine, given how much Orbán has reshaped the Hungarian state by dismantling checks and balances, undermining the rule of law, capturing the media landscape, and deepening ties with Moscow.
The fact that Magyar, a conservative, was previously a card-carrying member of Orbán's Fidesz party until he emerged from the ranks in 2024 to lead Tisza has raised some suspicions.
Asked about their expectations for the winner, diplomats and officials, who requested anonymity to speak freely, expressed different opinions.
One warned of a “significant shift” in both content and style, with a new, more practical and less adversarial Hungary. A second diplomat was much more circumspect, noting Hungary’s previous association with Fidesz, which could continue. A third defined it as “cautious optimism,” with a special emphasis on the word “cautious.”
"Of course, there is a sense of relief when you see the departure of a government that has actively sabotaged the EU for years," said an EU official.
Amidst the differing views, there is an overriding sense of hope that, at the very least, Hungarians will end the Orbán era with the veto right and that collective discussions will be spared harsh and time-consuming deadlocks.
The Hungarian himself has promised that, under his leadership, Hungary will maintain a "constructive stance" that is "critical and open to debate."
In his first press conference after the election, Magyar spoke about one of Orbán's most controversial decisions: his veto on the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine, which overturned a delicate agreement reached by leaders at a crucial summit in December.
Magyar said the deal “was already reached” in December and should not be renegotiated. He also confirmed that Hungary would retain the right to opt out of the joint borrowing, negotiated by Orbán, because the country is in a “very difficult financial situation.”
The comments were well received within the Commission, which has been trying to overcome Orbán’s veto and his demands regarding the Druzhba oil pipeline. A spokesman said the loan should reach Kiev “as soon as possible.”
Also still blocked are the 20th round of sanctions against Russia, the opening of accession groups for Ukraine, and 6.6 billion euros in military aid to Kiev.
Beyond the veto, the main point of friction that EU leaders want to remove, the most urgent task for Hungary is to restore Hungary's position in the political constellation and restore ties between Budapest and Brussels, which are currently at an all-time low.
His stated determination to be “at the table” is a 180-degree turn from Orbán, who gradually withdrew from the conversation until he became the main disruptor on the sidelines. At a crucial summit in December 2023, Orbán was asked to leave the room to enable the necessary consensus – an unprecedented episode in the bloc.
This isolation is what the Magyars seem most eager to avoid.
Party politics will certainly help him. While Orbán belongs to the far-right and Eurosceptic Patriots for Europe (PfE), Hungarians are descended from the European People’s Party (EPP), the center-right family that dominates the European Council. This, in itself, is a major advantage for the newcomer in navigating the complex dynamics of power.
His approach to Brussels may draw parallels with that of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who came to power in 2023 under the banner of improving Warsaw-Brussels ties and unlocking billions in EU funds. Hungary faces precisely this task.
“My working assumption is that Magyar will take on a similar role to Tusk: lifting the confrontational veto, especially on Ukraine, without significantly changing his positions on migration, climate policy or social issues,” says Nicolai von Ondarza, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
“As the new government will have to focus on reforming the state and cleaning up the corruption structures created by Orbán, the excessive importance that Hungary had due to Orbán’s destructive behavior is likely to diminish.”
Hungary's reshuffle at the negotiating table, from the periphery to the center, will be closely watched by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has been Orbán's closest ally in the European Council and has supported similar positions on issues related to Ukraine and Russia.
Fico, like Orbán, has caused controversy by using his veto to force concessions on unrelated files. Fico’s vetoes, however, are not quite like Orbán’s. While both are willing to obstruct, the Slovak prefers to keep an open line of communication with other leaders in an attempt to reach a compromise. Orbán, on the other hand, seems content to maintain the deadlock, despite external pressure.
It remains to be seen how Fico will fare without Orbán at his side. Some diplomats believe he will remain divisive. Others predict he will inevitably weaken.
However, the prospect of a veto – an option available to any incumbent leader, including the Hungarians – will continue to loom large over the 27-member bloc as it faces major challenges that require swift and decisive action.
For Ursula von der Leyen, the post-Orbán era should be about “lessons learned.”
“I think moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic deadlocks, as we have seen in the past,” she said after the election. “And we need to use the momentum now, really, to move forward on this issue.”
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