Covid-19 caused the average life expectancy of people to fall by about 2 years during the first two years of the pandemic, a more dramatic decline than previously thought, say scientists at the American Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a greater impact than any event in the last half century
According to researchers, the 1.6-year decline in human life expectancy represents a sharp reversal in the face of decades of increases in life expectancy worldwide.
– For adults, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a greater impact than any event recorded in the last half century, including military conflicts and natural disasters – says Austin Schumacher, a researcher from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and lead author of the study published in the journal “The Lancet”.
– During 2020 and 2021, life expectancy decreased in 84 percent of the 204 countries and territories analyzed, indicating the potentially devastating impacts of new viruses – the research team from the institute said in a statement.
The death rate for people over 15 increased by 22 percent for men and 17 percent for women during this period, the researchers estimate. Mexico City, Peru and Bolivia are some of the destinations where life expectancy has decreased the most.
The good news is that there has been a long-term decline in child mortality, but there is some good news in the institute's study estimates. Half a million fewer children under the age of five died in 2021 than in 2019, continuing a long-term decline in child mortality.
Researcher Hmwe Hmwe Q hailed this “remarkable progress,” saying the world must now focus on the next pandemic and addressing the huge health inequalities between countries. Despite the setbacks during the pandemic, people are still living much longer than before. Between 1950 and 2021, average life expectancy increased by 23 years, from 49 to 72, the researchers said.
One million more deaths than WHO estimates
Covid-19 is responsible for 15.9 million more deaths in 2020-2021, either as a direct result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus or indirectly due to disorders associated with the pandemic, researchers estimate. That's a million more deaths than the World Health Organization previously estimated. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total number of deaths with what would have been expected in the absence of a pandemic.
Barbados, New Zealand, Antigua and Barbuda are among the countries with the lowest rates of excess deaths during the pandemic, partly reflecting how isolated islands were often spared the full brunt of the pandemic. The study also found that the populations of many older, wealthier countries have begun to decline, and excess deaths are rising in less wealthy countries.
– This dynamic will lead to unprecedented social, economic and political challenges, such as labor shortages in areas where younger populations are shrinking and resource shortages in countries where populations continue to expand rapidly. Nations will need to cooperate on voluntary migration – warns Austin Schumacher.
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