From transplants to geopolitics, how Russia became increasingly dependent on China - Gazeta Express
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News

Express newspaper

20/05/2026 8:21

From transplants to geopolitics, how Russia became increasingly dependent on China

News

Express newspaper

20/05/2026 8:21

While walking in Tiananmen Square in Beijing last September, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to discuss the possibility that organ transplants could significantly extend human life, the BBC writes.

"According to this logic, human organs can be transplanted continuously. The longer you live, the younger you become, you can even achieve immortality," Putin's translator was heard saying.

"There are predictions that within this century people could live up to 150 years old," Xi Jinping's translator replied.

The conversation was considered significant for two leaders who have described each other as "best friends," while together they have spent 39 years in power and show no signs of withdrawing from the political scene.

This episode offered a rare glimpse into one of the most secretive and least understood partnerships in global politics. Such spontaneous snippets are among the few times the public gets to see the relationship between the two leaders up close.

Putin is expected to return to Beijing this week, as part of the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between Russia and China.

Unlike US President Donald Trump's visit to China last week, which was accompanied by lavish banquets and symbolic visits to historic temples, Putin's visit is expected to be much more discreet, with few details made public in advance.

The Kremlin spokesman stated that Moscow hopes to receive first-hand information regarding the Trump-Xi meeting.

According to reports, Xi Jinping also mentioned Putin's name to Trump during a walk in Zhongnanhai, the closed political complex of the Chinese leadership, where the Chinese leader joked that Putin had previously visited that residence.

There were hopes in Washington that Trump could distance Beijing from Moscow, but these expectations seem increasingly unrealistic.

China and Russia have for years described their relationship as a “friendship without borders.” However, experts argue that this relationship is markedly unequal.

According to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China.

"Russia is completely in China's pocket and Beijing can dictate the terms," ​​he says.

This disparity is especially evident in the economy. China is Russia's largest trading partner, while Russia represents only about 4% of China's international trade. The Chinese economy is much larger, and its exports to Russia have grown significantly.

Years of Western sanctions have pushed Moscow closer to Beijing. Tech giant Huawei, sanctioned by the US and excluded from 5G networks in the UK, has taken advantage of the departure of Western companies to become a key player in the Russian telecommunications sector.

With relations with the West damaged, China has become the main source of technology, scientific expertise, and industrial support for Russia.

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has become increasingly dependent on Chinese components for its military industry. A recent Bloomberg report found that Russia imports over 90% of its sanctioned technology from China, a significant increase compared to last year.

However, Moscow remains aware of the dangers of this dependence.

Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian Council on International Affairs think tank, in an analysis titled "We Bow to No One," emphasized that Russia does not want to become a vassal state of China.

"It is essential for Russia to maintain an equal position in relations with China, because Russia remains a great power and cannot be a second-rate partner," he wrote.

However, Russia has few real alternatives other than China. Beijing offers the market and demand that are vital to Moscow's economic survival, especially after the breakdown of relations with the West.

On the other hand, China is being careful not to exert excessive pressure on Russia.

According to Marcin Kaczmarski, a lecturer in security studies at the University of Glasgow, Beijing is aware of this imbalance, but is trying to avoid any negative reaction from Russian elites.

"China is pursuing a policy of restraint. It is not pushing Russia beyond its limits," he says.

Experts recall that Russia remains a proud partner and does not easily accept external impositions.

Gabuev cites as an example Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in 2023, when the Chinese leader reportedly urged Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Just days later, Moscow announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, a move that was interpreted as a signal of its strategic independence.

The war in Ukraine has also created benefits for China. According to analysts, Russia offers Beijing valuable military experience and technology that could be useful in the event of a potential crisis with Taiwan.

Another strategic element is energy. Russia remains an important supplier of oil and gas to China.

In May, Putin declared that the two countries were close to a “very important step” in energy cooperation, referring to the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project. The project envisages transporting 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to China via Mongolia.

For Beijing, this project has strategic importance, especially at a time of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and global uncertainty in energy markets.

However, the relationship between China and Russia is not a formal military alliance.

Bobo Lo, former deputy head of the Australian diplomatic mission in Moscow, says that it is this strategic flexibility that makes the partnership more sustainable.

"It is not a classic alliance, but a flexible strategic partnership," he says.

According to analysts, the West has often seen this relationship as either an “authoritarian axis” or a fragile partnership on the verge of collapse. But the reality seems more complex.

China and Russia share important strategic interests: a 4300-kilometer common border, complementary economies, and opposition to the US-dominated world order.

Unlike Western countries, Beijing and Moscow avoid mutual criticism on human rights issues.

China has repeatedly denied allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang, while Russia has faced strong criticism following the death of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. However, the two countries continue to support each other on the international stage.

"They don't criticize each other about Xinjiang or about Navalny. On many issues at the UN, they think alike," says Gabuev.

Although the relationship is often analyzed only in geopolitical terms, experts emphasize that contacts between societies are increasing significantly.

This is Putin's 25th trip to China, and institutional cooperation between the two countries has become much deeper.

Western sanctions and visa restrictions have pushed many Russians to China. Travel between the two countries has become easier thanks to a visa-free regime, while Chinese products have gained ground in the Russian market.

Russians are increasingly using Chinese phones and cars, especially after Western brands left the Russian market.

“The connection between the two societies is growing rapidly,” says Gabuev. “Exchange programs, scholarships, and joint projects are bringing the two peoples closer together.”

Although the imbalance between Moscow and Beijing remains a long-term challenge, analysts estimate that an imminent breakdown in relations is highly unlikely.

According to Bobo Lo, both countries consider the strategic partnership too important to fail.

"Both sides know that they have no better alternatives and for this reason the cooperation is expected to continue," he concludes.

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