Written by: Sami Behrami
Population is the greatest asset of a country. Despite this fact, demographic problems are becoming one of the greatest socio-economic challenges of the world. Although at the beginning of the 2.1st century in Europe (in some countries even earlier) efforts to solve these problems have been intensified through various policies aimed at promoting demographic renewal, namely the return to sustainable fertility levels (number of children per woman) of 2.1.
Many measures have been taken, ranging from direct financial payments, tax breaks, to improving the infrastructure for childcare and education (such as nurseries and kindergartens), but the results have been very limited. As the fertility rate per woman falls below the level that ensures natural population replacement (2.1), it has been proven that returning it to this level is extremely difficult.
The state of Kosovo has been facing numerous challenges since the beginning of the 21st century. However, on the 18th anniversary of independence, there is no doubt that the two biggest challenges with consequences in all spheres are of a demographic nature, namely emigration and fertility, the trends of which have reached worrying proportions and represent the "Achilles' heel" for Kosovar society as a result of the neglect of the developments of these two demographic parameters.
As a result, today Kosovo is in the full sense of the word in a demographic crisis, as evidenced by the results of the 2024 population census, the data of which showed that Kosovo is shrinking, emptying and aging, processes that are deepening day by day.
The high emigration flow, including the flight of the reproductive force with the consequent decrease in fertility, has placed the country before an existential challenge.
The trend of emigration from Kosovo - the main contributor to the disadvantages of demographic trends and the greatest challenge of the 18 years of independence - is undoubtedly emigration, and it has consequences for all demographic processes, especially the birth rate.
The emigration of the population from Kosovo to European countries is not a new phenomenon.
Kosovo throughout the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century was and remained a typical emigration territory. The main causes that forced the population to emigrate were and remain: the low level of economic development, the devastation from wars, and the unfavorable political situation, etc. There are also other reasons related to emigration, such as the dissatisfaction of the citizens of Kosovo with the current state of the socio-economic perspective and the general level of well-being, manifested in a high rate of unemployment, especially among young people and a high percentage of people living in poverty, causing the loss of prospects for a better and safer life in Kosovo, especially among young people as the bearers of all social processes.
In the period 2000-2024, around 450 thousand inhabitants have left Kosovo (according to ASK statistics), while according to alternative sources, the number reaches 520 thousand inhabitants, with an average of around 22 thousand inhabitants per year. Even more worrying is the fact that in the period 2011-2024 alone, over 400 thousand inhabitants have emigrated abroad.
That emigration has reached worrying proportions is also evidenced by the fact that in the same period, Kosovo's migration balance was negative, averaging over -21 thousand inhabitants per year.
Also of concern is the fact that, based on various studies conducted in the country, around 60% of respondents have expressed a desire to leave Kosovo, mainly young generations between 20 and 40 years old, who make up around half of the number of emigrants and who constitute the main demographic and fertility contingent, the labor contingent, security, etc., causing a decline in "human capital", as the main carrier of socio-economic development.
The emigrations of the 21st century are the most unfavorable waves of emigrations so far in Kosovo. These trends are developing in circumstances of reduced fertility, declining natural increase, with tendencies of decreasing total population size and accelerated process of deformation of population structures, especially that according to age towards population aging. In addition to the total number of emigrations, the fact that emigrations of this period have taken on a family character (entire families are leaving) is especially worrying, whether as a family or with family reunification.
As a result of the lack of proper policies, population migrations can today be considered more of a loss and a threat than an asset and a partner, even though in reality the diaspora is a very valuable asset in the establishment of the state of Kosovo itself. In favor of this finding are the data found in various surveys where, in the question regarding the impact of migrations on future developments in the country: 55.4% think that the impacts will be negative, 15.3% that there will be no impact, while only 11.6% think that migrations will have a positive impact on future developments in the country.
Also, the consequences of emigration are manifested in all segments of life: a) demographic (population size causing the loss of that part of the population, which constitutes development potential, birth rate, natural population growth and population structures - demographic, economic, social, ethnic, etc., this is accompanied by natural depopulation, brain drain, population aging, etc.; b) socio-economic (low GDP growth per capita, slowing economic growth, loss of labor force, reduced competitiveness and negative impact on the social system and pensions, emigration of qualified people, etc.); c) for the security of the country (in the 21st century, the concept of "security" has been greatly transformed and is not only equated with military security, but also includes other types, such as demographic, economic, ecological, political and other types of security); d) in the educational system (reduction in the number of pupils and students at all levels of education), etc.
In order for population migrations not to become a demographic, socio-economic, security problem, etc., it is necessary to create a sustainable migration model that implies: a) control of migrations so that they are regular, safe and responsible, b) not to become a demographic, socio-economic and security problem and c) creation, implementation and good management of "migration policies".
Fertility trends - in 2024, Kosovo recorded the lowest number of births since 1920 and 1939, respectively. The number of births in Kosovo in the period 2000-2024 decreased from 38.687 (2000, births only in Kosovo), to 21.487 (2024), which means almost halving the number of births (-44.5%), while compared to the time with the highest number of births, which were the 80s, the number of births has decreased by 161% or 2.6 times. The extent of the decrease in the number of births is best illustrated by the fact that in Kosovo in 2000, an average of 106 babies were born per day, while in 2024 this number decreased to 59 births per day.
It should also be noted that for sustainable demographic development of any country or region, the minimum is to achieve a stationary population type (where the next generation is the same as the existing one - generation replacement), the total fertility rate should be 2.1 children per woman.
Kosovo is far from the principles of sustainable development, as the total fertility rate in Kosovo in 2024 was 1.6 children per woman, or about -32% below the level for simple population renewal.
There is no doubt that emigration has a decisive impact on these birth trends and the overall fertility rate, as nearly half of the emigrant contingent is of reproductive age. This is also confirmed by the fact that births abroad today account for 1/3 of the total number of births in Kosovo, up from 1/5 in 2011.
The high flow and selectivity of emigration (the age group 20-40 years makes up almost half of emigrants),) and the rapid trend of decreasing fertility have accelerated the process of population aging - Kosovo is aging. Thus, while in 2011 the age group over 60 years made up 9.6% of the population, in 2024 this share increased to 16.1%. That the population of Kosovo is aging is also evidenced by the fact of population growth by age group in the period 2011-2024, where the young age group 0-19 years showed a tendency to decrease by -25.9%, the age group 20-59 years decreased by -5.2%, while only the age group over 60 years showed an increase of 49.7% (they doubled).
Ultimately, Kosovo is experiencing the deepest demographic crisis in its modern history. Ignoring demographic processes or their spontaneous development will undoubtedly lead to a further deepening of the demographic, economic and social crisis, which poses a threat to the country's development, questioning the country's long-term socio-economic sustainability.
If demographic trends in the Republic of Kosovo continue with the existing dynamics, without undertaking long-term population policy measures that would make it possible to interrupt such trends, especially emigration, then the demographic future of Kosovo will be 'gloomy' and demographic trends will invalidate all other development efforts. Therefore, population policy measures are a necessity and an emergency for Kosovo as part of overall development policies.
Without a strategic approach, the consequences will be increasingly visible, with major social and economic implications, deepening the demographic crisis and jeopardizing sustainable demographic development and overall sustainability in the Republic of Kosovo. The future of Kosovo, but also of the entire world, will depend on how this problem is resolved.
The author is a doctor of geography and demography.
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